 3G : broad-based but narrow-band is the
way
Première publication : 6
septembre 2002, mise en ligne: 6 septembre 2002, par
Benoit
Desavoye
3G must be deployed as a
complement of 2G, not a replacement says Ovum For
immediate release, 6 September 2002. The mobile industry
needs to refocus its early 3G efforts, says Ovum, the
analyst and consulting company. Mobile operators rolling
out 3G networks need to forget about bandwidth-hungry
applications for the few, and instead concentrate on
narrowband applications - including voice - for the
many.
Rolling out a 3G network to
provide multi-media applications to a large number of
people over a wide coverage area requires huge
investment and, as things stand, this looks to offer a
fairly poor return. Ovum estimates that 3G will account
for 14.3 percent of the world's mobile connections by
2007 compared to 0.3 percent today.
"Handing back the licences
and pretending 3G was just a bad dream is not the
answer, says Julian Hewett, Chief Analyst with Ovum.
"Instead, operators must roll out 3G gradually in
traffic hotspots, such as capital cities, where many 2G
networks are already feeling the strain."
Such a strategy will result
in much lower levels of CapEx - which should mitigate
some of the financial pressure operators are currently
under. And once it's in place, 3G technology will
provide a much more cost-efficient network. Voice
transmission could cost 30% less than 2G, and data
transmission 80% less than 2.5G technologies like GPRS.
Hence, an OpEx saving.
"It comes down to deploying
3G as a critical complement to the 2G network, not as a
replacement nor as a standalone premium service
platform", says Hewett. He adds : "Handset
manufacturers must also develop some simple, low cost 3G
phones to seed the new technology in the market. Users
will naturally embrace multimedia services when the
devices enabling them are widespread. This is how the
most successful telecoms applications develop - the
Internet, Minitel, fax and SMS".
This strategy marks a
radical change of direction for 3G. In the current
market, operators are committed by their licence
conditions to deliver 3G coverage far beyond the traffic
hotspots in urban areas and, as far as we are aware, no
vendor has plans for simple 3G phones which are
primarily designed for voice.
"Implementing this strategy
will require a big change of heart across the whole
industry - regulators, operators, infrastructure
vendors, and handset manufacturers", says Hewett. "In
our view, it's the right way. Unfortunately, we doubt
the industry has the courage to change direction quickly
enough. But it would be nice if there was at least the
option".
Regardless of whether 3G
limps along with a full-on multimedia strategy, or
whether it refocuses on 'broad-based but narrow-band
services', user adoption will be low in the early years.
In 1999, Ovum wrote "3G is
not necessarily mobile multi-media. Mobile multi-media
is not necessarily 3G. There is no such thing as a 3G
application … new revenues available, because it's 3G,
will be very small … a capacity-relief strategy is the
least risky and has the shortest payback." [1]
This is coming to pass, as
operators realise that multi-media applications will not
generate additional revenues in the short term.
Source : MOBILE@OVUM,
July 2002
[1] Third Generation
Mobile : Market Strategies, Ovum, September 1999
Definitions :
W-CDMA is the 3G path from
GSM. CDMA 1X is an evolution of CDMA, a cut-down
version of 3G (depending on how you define 3G). It is in
use in Korea, Japan, and the US.
 Ends-
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